Absorption Rates in North County Coastal San Diego
🏡North County Coastal San Diego Monday Market Update (1)Fig 1: Absorption Rates 1 year prior to pandemic vs 1 YTD back from Nov 15, 2021 in North County Coastal San Diego communities
Here’s this week’s market update for North County Coastal San Diego. As we wrap up the end of 2021, limited inventory continues to be a dilemma in San Diego county (and most everywhere else too).
This week I wanted to discuss Absorption Rates in the North County Coastal market. What exactly is Absorption Rate you ask?
Well, it is essentially the time it takes for the available inventory in a market to be ‘absorbed’ (essentially bought). It is calculated by dividing the number of homes sold in the allotted time frame by the total number of available homes available during that same period of time.
For example: Between 11/15/2020 and 11/15/2021 in the zip code of 92007, there were 175 homes sold. In the same period of time, there were a total of 196 Listed homes in that market.
175 Homes Sold = 91%
196 Listed Homes Available
Here’s some more food for thought.. Most literature suggests that an absorption rate greater than 20% indicates a strong sellers market, and a rate below 15% suggests a strong buyers market.. ?
Curious how long it will take to absorb all available inventory in your submarket? Lets take a look on the same concept with a different perspective:
Take the total number of homes sold in the last 12 months in the area you are looking at, divide that number by 12 months to get a monthly rate of homes sold.
Then divide the total number of available on-market homes right now by that rate. That will give you a period of time (measured in months) that it will take to for that inventory to be absorbed.
So going back to our prior example of homes in 92007, 175 Units Sold in the last 12 months:
175/12=11.3333 (our rate of homes sold per month). Then to appropriately cancel the units we divide the available inventory today by this rate and we determine the following:
10 HOMES = 0.69 months before all available inventory is absorbed.
14.58 HOMES/ Month
If your head is about to spin that here’s a breakdown of these 2 concepts for North County Coastal Zips:
|Zip||Months of ‘On Market’ Inventory (1 year look back 11/15/2020-11/15/2021)||Absorption Rate: (1 year look back)||Pre-Pandemic Absorption Rates 3/15/2019-3/15/2020
|Solana Beach: 92075||0.87||74.05||58.23
|Del Mar: 92014||1.54||68.07||54.15
|Coastal Carlsbad: 92008||1.09||70.48||61.02
|Rancho Santa Fe: 92067||2.69||64.44||43.73|
One interesting thing to consider when looking at contributing causes of increased absorption rates is that there are relatively fewer listings available on market compared to total available properties. Fewer homeowners listed their homes for sale in this last year than in the year prior to the pandemic. Couple this with low interest rates and increased buyer demand, and it isn’t surprising that in zip codes like Cardiff By The Sea that we are seeing nearly a 40% increase in absorption rates.
What’s the upshot of all of this data? Well, the last year, homes have been selling like hotcakes compared to the recent year prior to Covid 19, fewer home owners have listed their homes for sale. Communities such as Cardiff, Rancho Santa Fe, and Solana Beach have shown the largest change in absorption rates, making it even more competitive for Sellers in these markets to ‘name their price’.
Curious to see what your home may be worth if you were to sell in today’s market? Go to: http://sellyoursandiegohomeformore.com/ and get a preliminary report of what your home’s value may be.
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